Posted by Greg Rittler on December 19th, 2008

Born. Grow. Mature. Decline. Die?

The why of change

Change is a part of life. Some embrace it. Some resist it. Some love it. Some hate it. Some would rather die than change. But regardless of your disposition toward change one thing is certain: change happens.

The Sigmoid Growth Curve

There is a natural cycle to every organism, organization, civilization, relationship, and individual. It is predictable, natural, obvious (when you actually look at it), and important to our understanding of how life on this side of eternity works. It’s called the Sigmoid Growth Curve.

Stages of the Sigmoid Growth Curve

• Inception: This is where it all starts. What is interesting about inception is that it starts with a “dip”, a downturn. For new parents this is where their baby actually loses weight after birth before it starts to grow. For muscles this is when you tear them down before they can be built up. For organizations this is where you stumble before things begin to grow. For individuals this is often pain that brings a reason for change.
• Growth: This is where things take off. In the body this is puberty. In an organization this is a breakthrough that leads to great results. In a civilization this is where masses of people begin to see the benefit of being a part of it. Growth is power unleashed.
• Maturity: Maturity is when things are refined. This is when muscle development matches the ability to control the muscles. This is when organizations work like a well oiled machine. This is when governments develop structure and laws. This is a powerful time.
• Decline: Decline is when things atrophy. Muscles shrink. People decline and die. Organizations die slowly or often implode.

These four stages rule living things everywhere.

Leveraging the Sigmoid Growth Curve

The key to the Sigmoid Growth Curve is that growing organizations, businesses, countries, and individuals are made up of a chain of sigmoid curves that are ever moving “upward and to the right”. The way to stay “upward and to the right” is to begin a new sigmoid growth curve before the decline stage starts. This is important because the great temptation is to do “business as usual” while things are growing. Instead we need to be looking for opportunities for change at the moment when things seem to be humming along perfectly. There is no other way to keep things moving in the right direction.

The time of confusion

When a new curve begins there is a natural tension between the old and the new. The old wants to keep going the way things are. The new is taking a “dip” and moving away from the old. This tension is expected, but isn’t pleasant. This is the “time of great confusion”. This tension and confusion is why otherwise good leaders often fail at crucial moments in an organization. They are simply afraid of the tension that will come with the change.

Signs of the time to change

• If you are NOT starting something new OR in a growth phase then you are in decline. Death is next. Think about it.
• If you are growing you need to be looking for signs of decline. This looks very different for different people, organizations, governments, etc. but there will be signs. For most organizations this will look at some level like people trying to protect something old. If your culture is characterized by people want to hang on to the old you know it is time for change.
• When you start something new you need to be ready for the tension and confusion that will come with it. Be patient with people. Be open to criticism and critique. Listen and understand words from wise counsel. But whatever you do don’t abandon your change because of this. Adjust course if you need to. You don’t want to die.

Keep moving forward,

Greg